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Contents
1. Energy Features of Civilization …………… 2
1.1. Alternative Versions of the Future
1.2. Civilizations and Their Energy Features
1.3. Low-Energy Civilizations of the Past
1.4. Emerging of the Energy Civilization in the 18th and 19th Cenuries
2. Energy Aspect of the Modern Civilization…… 3
2.1. The Earth as a Source of Energy
2.2. Energy-Consuming Production
2.3. Engaging New Sources of Energy
3. Discussing the Future of the Power Industry……………………… 4
3.1. The Energy Crisis
3.2. Economic and Social Aspects of the Energy Future
3.3. The International Aspect of the Energy Future
3.4. Systemic Proposals
3.5. Non-Systemic Proposals
4. Low-Energy Man ……………………………6
4.1. Work
4.2. Housing
4.3. Transport
4.4. Low-Energy Clothes and Food
4.5. Health Care and Recreation
5. Low-Energy Economy and Society ………………… 8
5.1. Basic Foundations of the Low-Energy Civilization of Progress
5.2. Control of the Human Population
5.3. The Low-Energy Economy
5.4. Intellectualization and the Sci-Tech Progress
5.5. Problems of Transfer from the Energy-Consuming to the Low-Energy
Civilization of Progress
I. Energy Features of Civilization
1.1. Alternative Versions of the Future
Sometimes in science, in history of peoples and states, in the life of an
individual there appear problems which are extremely important but at the same
time impossible to solve.
In such situations it is necessary to make maximum use of the whole potential of
methods of the past and of the present. This way can be nominally called
systemic.
Secondly, lack of traditional approaches and exclusive acuteness (and sometimes
danger) of the situation require completely non-standard ideas and proposals.
This way can be called non-systemic.
Emerging of such new religions as Buddhism and Christianity can serve as an
example of non-systemic approaches. Creating societies of state-bureaucratic
socialism in Russia and in Germany in the 20th century was also non-systemic.
Acuteness of the problem of the energy future justifies the attempt to make a
non-systemic analysis in this report.
1.2. Civilizations and their Energy Features.
The notion of civilization is under discussion. There are different
interpretations, for example, A.Toinby (“Civilization under History Judgment”)
or H.Y.Danilevskiy (“Russia and Europe”). S.Huntington (“Driving Forces of
Civilization”) suggests looking into civilization as a unity of “language,
history, religion, customs and institutes of self-identification”.
A number of major materialistic and ideological features can be singled out
inside civilization. The energy aspect can and should be chosen as one of these
features.
Very often the energy features are not studied in the civilizations of the past.
Meanwhile L.N.Gumilyov rather insistently puts the natural energy situation in
the Central Asia in the first place as the main reason of the great migration of
peoples. Besides, the intervention of such pre-historic people as Cro-Magnon men
from Africa into the continent of Eurasia fifty thousand years ago is very often
linked to the change of climate and the general energy climate on our planet and
in Africa itself.
As for the modern civilization, its energy aspect is one of or maybe the
greatest one.
1.3. Low-Energy Civilizations of the Past.
During a long historic period Man himself was the main source of energy in the
human community.
Cooperation of people – which started in its pre-historic form like collective
hunting – created additional energy.
Energy demand was satisfied by using labour tools and means of protection from
bad weather – fells, caves, huts, reserves and different facilities for storing
them, etc.
The first revolution in energy supply of the human communities took place when
people mastered the fire and learned to use, to save, to extract it, to make
reserves of fuel to keep the fire.
Regular agriculture allowed to make reserves of energy of different types: food,
fuel.
Using domestic animals for food and clothing became an important historic energy
milestone.
At the first stages of the human civilization there appeared the first
facilities using the energy of water (rafts, boats, dams, water-mills) and wind
(sails).
Gun-powder was invented in Ancient China. Archimedes was ready to make miracles
with the help of levers. Geron of Alexandria constructed a steam station. The
first technologies of processing materials were developed, including winemaking
and metallurgy.
But generally all human civilizations of the past were low-energy systems in
terms of both consuming and production of energy
1.4. Emerging of the Energy Civilization in the 18th and 19th Centuries.
The second Energy revolution started in the 18th century with the development of
the steam engine.
With the steam engine there appeared a new kind of human civilization – the
energy one.
The next step was inventing internal-combustion engine. And oil became the
second after coal most important source of energy for the civilization.
Application of electricity became the third stage of development of the energy
civilization.
Chemical technologies using the energy of interacting molecules and atoms had
finally confirmed what can be called now as the energy civilization.
ð. The Energy Aspect of the Modern Civilization
2. 1. The Earth as a Source of Energy.
It is generally thought that the feudal period was fully based on land and
depended on land. But in reality the modern stage of the civilization is the
most dependent on our planet.
There are two basic aspects of this dependence.
First – land is a means of production of food and other consumer goods.
Second – extracting different kinds of energy resources from the bowels of the
earth.
2.2. Energy-Consuming Production.
The modern agriculture has turned into a huge energy consumer. Soil cultivation,
sowing, harvesting, primary processing – everything needs consuming a lot of
energy. Besides, there is irrigation, primary processing of products, storing
and transporting.
As a result consumption of energy per agricultural worker in the US is 5 to 6
times greater than per industrial worker.
Development of all branches of industry at the modern stage of our civilization
requires constantly growing amounts of consumed energy.
Cities in general and housing and utilities infrastructure in particular have
turned into huge consumers of energy. The modern human home consists of a great
number of energy consuming appliances – kitchen, heating, cleaning, utilizing,
health and hygienic ones. Their expansion is synonymic to growing energy
consumption.
2.3. Engaging New Sources of Energy.
At the modern stage of our civilization new branches of energy production are
being developed.
These are first of all hydro-energy sources.
The role of chemical by nature sources of energy is ever growing. Just think
about different kinds of batteries.
But the most important in this respect is the construction of atomic power
stations. In a number of countries production of energy on atomic power stations
occupies the first place in the total energy production.
The new sources of energy are wind turbines, solar batteries, geo-thermal
stations, marine tidal power stations.
Exclusively promising are hydrogen reactors and biological energy-producing
stations.
û. Discussing the Future of the Power Industry.
3.1. The Energy Crisis.
However impressive is the success of the energy civilization, however brilliant
are its prospects, yet we can see signs of future crisis.
1. Humankind is growing in number and every person would like to have living
conditions equal to those of people from developed countries. This leads to
increase in power consumption all over the world.
2. Prospects of growth of natural resources are obviously limited.
3. Already now the amount of energy used by our civilization threatens with
contamination of the environment and questions its ability to be a sphere of
life.
4. The danger of technogenic catastrophes with exclusive consequences is growing
dramatically. Just one meteorite to hit a thermo-nuclear power station is enough
to lead to consequences incommensurable to Chernobyl. Risk of disastrous
technogenic catastrophes becomes extremely high.
5. The more energy saturated is the civilization, the more fragile it becomes.
When power was switched off in a village in 1950-s, it led just to darkness that
could be overcome with candles. But if there is a power failure in a modern city,
it means low temperature in apartments, broken pipes of water supply, damaged
food in the fridge and what is even worse – disruption of operations in
hospitals. And there many other things.
But much more important are economic and social prospects of development of the
energy civilization.
3.2. Economic and Social Aspects of the Energy Future.
Spending on the new kinds of energy and consequently their price will continue
to grow.
The price growth on power sources can be compensated with growing manufacturing
productivity while using them.
But this does not happen always and everywhere. We can see, for example, that
increasing efficiency of a car lags behind growing price of fuel for its engine.
As a result we have an economic deadlock: efficiency of energy consumed cannot
catch up with the growing price of energy.
Even more dangerous can be social consequences of the crisis.
A new social crisis will be inevitable unless the expectations of the poorer
part of society for improved living conditions are surpassed by growing energy
production.
3.3. International Aspect of the Energy Future.
At the present conditions of international development, when the number of
independent countries keeps growing, when they get equal rights irrespective of
the size of their population or territory, when their claims on natural
resources that happen to be found on their territory are accepted by the whole
world community as normal – the energy crisis inevitably assumes international
features.
There will appear more and more countries capable of protecting energy resources
on their territory using military force. On the whole fragility of energy
civilization makes conflicts of this kind very dangerous.
Internationalization of all natural energy resources of the world will require
creating a strong world center capable of securing such internationalization.
But establishing this center and its functioning will create no less problems
than the energy crisis itself. What kind of center is it going to be? Who and
how will organize it? Even democratic mechanisms inside the country cannot
guarantee adopting better solutions.
But even if the countries themselves come to an agreement, inevitably there will
appear those dissatisfied, who will inevitably unite to organize associations.
Some of them will inevitably attain extremist and even terrorist features.
Proposals of the ways to overcome or at least decrease the dangerous
consequences of the energy development of the civilization can be united into
two groups: systemic and non-systemic.
3.4. Systemic Proposals.
The most important proposals considered to be systemic are those linked to
“Kioto Protocol”. The main idea of these measures is to normalize (hence to
limit) the amount of substances thrown out into the atmosphere which intensify
the process of warming of our planet with all the consequences caused by this
process.
There is an intensive dispute around “Kioto Protocol”, but it is obvious now
that even if all countries of the world observe it the energy crisis of the
modern civilization will not be radically overcome.
More resolute seem to be proposals put forward by the Roman Club. The essence of
these measures is to implement regulation of the world human population. Birth
control should become the key aspect of such regulation.
Measures to limit the birth rate have undoubtedly played a positive role in the
present Chinese “economic miracle”.
But it is China where many problems of this variant were exposed:
- extreme difficulty to control the birth rate in rural areas;
- the system “one child for two parents” will lead to another crisis when one
child has to pay all the expenses to support two senile parents;
- permission granted to wealthy families to have the second child is associated
with great social dangers.
3.5. Non-Systemic Proposals.
Insufficient efficiency of systemic proposals has become the main cause of
emerging extreme radical ideas. Energy aspects are being solved by rejecting the
modern civilization as a whole. That is why they can be called non-systemic.
Self-depletion of one or another civilization is well-known in history. The
civilization of Ancient Egypt perished. The same happened to antique
civilizations.
Therefore the ideas of overcoming the modern civilization are quite justified.
Theoretically two options are possible.
The first one – transfer to a civilization oriented on consuming smaller amount
of energy.
The second one – a new sci-tech revolution which will substitute the present
amounts of consumed energy with smaller ones. Perhaps, nano-technology can serve
as a basis for this new low-energy civilization.
In this report we are going to study only the first option of the low-energy
civilization.
Let us get back to what has already been proposed.
Gerbert Markuse considered the modern man to be unacceptable and dangerous.
First of all, the main intention of this man is to satisfy demands. Secondly,
these demands are exclusively materialistic. Spirituality is gradually dying out.
Thirdly, materialistic demands such as clothes, furniture and food are produced
and consumed depending on fashion.
Ideas of Markuse to some extent coincide with the views of Leo Tolstoy. In the
novel “Predatory Things of the Century” by Brothers Strugatskiys you can get
acquainted with the ideology which is very close to the ideas of Markuse.
A personality has emerged that was called by Markuse “a one-dimension man”. Just
eliminate them and 90% of the modern production will become redundant.
Another batch of proposals has been worked out by ideologists of developing
countries.
Bin Laden is one of them.
It will take us dozens of years to catch up with the level of consumption in
Europe. But we do not need to. Human being used to and is able to live without
television, bath or refrigerator. A genuine Muslim does not need such a way of
life. Moreover, it can hamper a normal spiritual life.
But if such a way of life is not needed, it means that generally production,
services, culture, science and the modern energy civilization itself are not
needed as well.
There is one more option – Communism. Socialist-utopianists designed a society
with such features as introversion and reservedness limited by norms and rules
in meals, clothes and even in sexual life.
In his dissertation submitted to Sorbonne University Pol Pot bases himself upon
Marxist ideas: Communism means the full satisfaction of demands, but these
demands should be “reasonable”. Pol Pot has brought this “reasonableness” to the
following conclusion: allowed can be only what is accepted by the communist
leaders. Another idea of Pol Pot is as follows: judging by the experience of the
USSR and China he thought that it was impossible to turn a person brought up
during the old civilization into a citizen of the Communist society. Hence it is
necessary just to liquidate all the people older than 18 and to bring the young
people up with the new ideas.
The model of the full Communism does not need the modern civilization with its
energy crisis: everything can be settled by the norms of the “reasonableness”.
Though, not much reasonable is left with the man. You can find this with Orwell
(«1984»). A man as a personality actually disappears. Only “numbers” are left (Zamyatin,
“We”) and instead of the human civilization there will appear “the ant
civilization” (N.Viner, “Cybernetics”).
In the Communist society people living equally “according to reasonable demands”
are left with no motivation to stand out, to develop abilities, to create and to
invent. That is why the general stabilization, including the sci-tech one, will
turn into conservation and eventually into stagnation. For example, Socialism in
the USSR could only survive on buying for money, capturing during the occupation
of Germany and obtaining by means of spying of sci-tech achievements of
capitalism: from missiles to atomic bombs.
Confucianism with its norms and regulations both for individuals and society has
a great potential for the development towards the low-energy civilization. All
the present-day non-systemic concepts of low-energy civilizations can be united
into three directions.
The first one:. Idealizing some societies of the past and calls to bring them
back: communities, manufactories and so on.
The second one. Changing the socioeconomic formation so that it corresponds to
productive forces with further stabilizing and conserving the society after this
transfer.
The third one. Progress of the civilization is on but strictly within the
framework of the general development of the Solar System. This approach is fully
represented in the theory of Charles Furot about dying of the human civilization
on our planet together with depletion of energy resources of the Sun.
All the three approaches do not envisage any technical progress and eventually
mean dying out of the human civilization. As for the energy type of development,
we can say that despite all the problems it creates a prospect of preserving the
thinking substance which appeared on the Earth by means of migrating into the
depth of the Galaxy. Then we have the question: Is a low-energy civilization
capable of implementing the sci-tech progress? In other words: Can a low-energy
civilization become a civilization of progress? In the final section of this
report we shall try to substantiate in general terms the possibility of emerging
such a civilization.
IV. Low-Energy Man
Let us try to imagine the following variant of the future: civilization with its
sci-tech progress is preserved but it becomes low-energy.
As the main issue is a man and his demands, let us first investigate if a man
can be “low-energy”. A number of examples will show such a possibility.
4.1. Work.
The working place of a low-energy man must be equipped with all resources of
Internet, mobile telephone, telecommunication and nano-technology.
This man, according to E.Toffler (“The Third Wave”), will have to come to his
office or factory maximum once a week. The rest of his working time he will be
working at home.
Already now English firms employ secretaries and other employees who work in
offices in Great Britain while living somewhere in India.
Transferring working places to home address will undoubtedly have a great energy
effect.
4.2. Housing.
As there is no need to have housing close to the place of work, there will
inevitably emerge the idea to settle the mankind in the least energy-consuming
regions, for example, known to us Cuba, California or the Island of Hainan where
annual meetings of “íóü” were held.
The climate of these regions allows to drastically reduce costs of both
construction and maintenance of housing.
But even before this new great migration of people there is a lot to be done in
terms of reducing the costs of energy spending on housing and utilities
infrastructure by rejecting the systems of central heating, applying remote
control of heating devices and returning to low-rise housing, etc.
4.3. Transport
Changes in working and living conditions will radically reduce consumption of
energy on transport. Internet shopping will allow to cut the need for people to
make trips.
Rejecting the energy-consuming kinds of transport could be one of the immediate
measures. Think, for example, of individual bicycles and cycle-rickshaws. At the
average speed of 10 to 15 kilometres per hour and using cycle roads you will be
able to get to work in 40 to 50 minutes, which is the same as by car nowadays.
It is also possible to return to horse carts and other low-energy kinds of
transport. Besides saving energy we can get radical improvement of environment.
For long distance transporting of people and loads it is important to restore
the water routs as the least energy-consuming. Some time ago all of the rivers
in Russia were linked.
In future balloons and zeppelins should play a special role as low-energy kinds
of transport. They will allow saving great amount of energy and bringing people
and loads straight to their destination.
4.4. Low-Energy Clothes and Food.
Let us remember that people of ancient Greece and Rome had only sandals on bare
feet.
Let us remember that just a hundred years ago a teacher or a doctor normally had
only a couple of suits to be worn for five years on average each. And monthly
wages of a school teacher in tsarist period was equal to the price of 5 to 10
cows.
Diversity of clothes and footwear is a result of factory production. And fashion
has become an instrument of imposing redundant things.
After Americans moved to live in California, they threw away warm clothes,
blankets and other things they had brought from colder regions. Everybody knows
about it in America, that is why many people after retirement prefer to move to
warmer regions.
The food situation is also rather complicated. Diversity and abundance in this
sphere of life have also surpassed all the reasonable limits.
Chemical substances, hormones, conserving agents are in very wide use.
Over-eating and wrong food composition have become the main causes of a whole
range of diseases.
4.5. Health Care and Recreation.
One of the main features of the modern civilization is growing spending on
health care: both in terms of producing more and more complicated medicines and
creating “factories” for healing the patients.
In ancient times in Sparta all potentially feeble babies were killed by the
ruling of the council of experienced mothers. But nowadays young people with
hereditary illnesses and protected by doctors get married and give birth to
children “awarded” with all the illnesses their parents had suffered from. The
accumulated reserves of hereditary illnesses burden most of the people. It is
not difficult to calculate that in two or three generations there will be no
more healthy people left in the society. Therefore medication will accompany
people till the last minutes of life.
The present situation is a way to the degeneration of mankind. Although the main
problem of changing this situation is rather far from the energy situation, yet
substitution of the present man with the new one may lead to a significant
saving of energy. Sports and recreation also can contribute to saving huge
amount of energy.
Just 30 to 40 years ago walking and river trips were considered to be the ideal
kinds of holiday in the USSR. There was developed an industry of low-energy
kinds of holiday. Nowadays people prefer to travel by car, on a cruise liner or
by charter plains. Low-energy kinds of sports, such as volley-ball, football,
cycling, skiing and others are being gradually replaced with energy-consuming
ones, for example, mountain skiing, motor racing, artificial ice rinks etc.
It is necessary to work out an integrated programme in order to revive the
low-energy kinds of sport. Generally speaking, the following conclusion can be
drawn out: it is possible and necessary to create a society of low-energy people.
But what kind of society is it going to be?
V. Low-Energy Economy and Society.
5.1. Basic Foundations of the Low-Energy Civilization of Progress.
Creating a society of human relations is the second after emerging low-energy
man foundation of the low-energy civilization. This society will have social
guarantees rejecting hostile competition and different kinds of racial, sexual,
age, national and personal contradictions.
Existence of such a society inside the country will lead to elimination of most
of the power structures of the state and the reduction of the corresponding
spending including energy costs.
Internationally the countries with this society will reject the modern armies
with huge expenses including purely energy ones.
All these changes will result in emerging of low-energy economy and society of
the new type.
5.2. Control of the Human Population.
However low-energy becomes each individual on the Earth, control of the total
population will play a major role.
Basic should be the idea that the number of people to live comfortably on our
planet is limited. Furthermore, the system of birth control should be introduced
to secure this limit. The most important for the civilization will become the
idea: each woman can have no more than two children.
The approach of Leo Tolstoy should be taken into consideration: “Marriage of men
and women intended to continue the Humankind is such a great and important thing
both for each individual and for the whole of Mankind, that it should be done
properly, the way wise and sacred people suggested long before us”.
5.3. The Low-Energy Economy.
Transfer from the economy efficiency of which is based on energy consumption to
the low-energy economy will generally include the following set of measures.
1. Fabrication of a set of low-energy products of industries working for the
consumer.
2. Reconstruction of the industries in accordance with this set of products in
terms of both amount and quality.
3. Reconstruction of all other branches supporting the industries working for
the consumer.
4. Transfer to the new methods of distributing industries on our planet: in
unpopulated regions of deserts and mountains, in the depths of the oceans. It
seems perspective to organize production on the Moon using air-free technologies.
5.4. Intellectualization and the Sci-Tech Progress.
Intellectualization will play an important role in the bringing up the
low-energy man. Intellectualization can not only introduce the low-energy way of
life much better than other means (dictatorship, bringing-up, etc.), it also
helps to live in it.
First of all, intellectualization means the system of education. Further, this
is the system of bringing-up. But the most important is the way of life which
will comprise many components including the political system excluding
equalization of intellectuals.
Intellectualization is to become the foundation of the permanent sci-tech
progress. This is exactly what distinguishes this variant of civilization from
the other non-systemic low-energy concepts of the future.
5.5. Problems of Transfer from the Energy-Consuming to the Low-Energy
Civilization of Progress.
First of all, it is necessary to organize a wide social discussion of the whole
idea of the low-energy civilization.
Furthermore, it is important to work out a scientific concept of the low-energy
civilization both generally and on separate problems. In this concept it is
necessary to envisage stages of development.
The first stage: Measures to save energy which can be realized now within the
framework of the modern energy-consuming civilization.
The second stage should include more radical measures in the norms of life, in
the everyday life, etc.
And finally, the third stage: the beginning of realization of the whole scheme
of the low-energy civilization. At this stage international programmes will play
the major role.
For example, the country which refuses to implement the concept “one woman – no
more than two children” should be excluded from all the programmes of food and
medicines supply. This would only be logical: If the country does not want to do
something consciously, let it settle all the problems like in previous periods
with the natural regulators: epidemics, harvest failures, wars, etc.
Feasibility of the low-energy civilization will only increase if it is
supported by the achievements of the sci-tech progress: nano-technology, etc.
The ideas of non-systemic low-energy civilization are quite compatible with the
projects of resettlement of the surplus Earth population in space, etc. With
this approach what is left on our planet will be quite enough for decent life of
the people.
So far we are aware of the algorithm of development of the materialistic world
with the tendency towards the universal leveling in accordance with the third
law of the thermo-dynamics and the law of conservation of energy and substance.
But we do not know how and why there appear new galaxies out of the black holes.
And of course we do not know the laws of development of the spiritual living
substance of the Universe despite the existence of concepts of different
religions and of Vernadskiy.
But there is no doubt that the ideas of low-energy man and low-energy society
orient the man on his spiritual substance and increase its value and
independence on the material substance.
The ideas of the problems of the low-energy civilization of progress seem at
least to be useful within the framework of the general discussion of the energy
issues of the future. |
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